IN A FAST-CHANGING world, the investment bankers of Wall Street and the City of London have clung to certain rituals. One of these is the annual “outlook”, which lays out the path the economy and financial markets might take over the coming year. These hefty documents start to appear in inboxes a few weeks before the year's end.

In mid-November a strategist at one bank had just put his outlook to bed with satisfaction. His call on stocks for 2021 was “constructive”: Wall-Street-speak for “bullish, but not mindlessly so”. But a few days later he was feeling a little less pleased with himself. His outlook was not distinctive. Rival strategists too were constructive.